Global demand for electronic components and inventory at the same time experienced a drop in capacity utilization bottom of the stage, will gradually rise into the demand and inventory at the same time, the operating rate climbed upward cycle: 1) demand for the traditional peak season is approaching e-seasonal factors will drive the demand chain better. Pick up at the same time the needs of machine manufacturers to promote the increase of days of inventory; 2) will be in 2Q U.S. economy bottomed out, further enhancing the expected demand to pick up; 3) to the global electronics demand in 2009 to measure the overall decline of 12.5%, semiconductor capacity utilization should be 75% of the first quarter, the operating rate of less than Liucheng substantially digest inventory level is the result of a rebound to normal levels of power; global electronic components increased quarter by quarter the level of capacity utilization is high probability event. NOKIA, INTEL and other giants in the recent first quarter earnings report also expressed the worst period is over. Operating rate of recovery will contribute to the profitability of the global electronics manufacturers recovery and ease price pressures.
The overall current electronic components less attractive valuation levels, 2009 PE28x, is the broader market in 2009 PE of 1.27x. PB2.74x, is the broader market average of 1.1x. Investors are advised to "standard." The variety in the configuration, we are more optimistic about the export-oriented strong 2Q cycle companies, including China Microelectronics (5.86, -0.34, -5.48%), health benefits technology (6.88, -0.39, -5.36%) and Changjiang Electronics Technology (4.78, -0.28, -5.53%), in the steady growth of the company valuation, we recommend a more tech Leybold advantage: 1) exports pick up, the global operating rate of increase in the trend cycle is conducive to strong export-oriented companies, but consider the results of flexibility, if the normal level of profitability measure (eg, 2007), the PE in general about the 15-18x lower than the class of stable growth of around 30x FY09 PE; 2) LEYBOLD Tech 2009 23x The PE valuation has some advantages, and TFT touch screen and an empty box business will bring new growth highlights the company.
Electronic domestic demand driven by earlier in the recovery policy, and related components, has entered in March while inventories increased demand and the upward cycle. Looking ahead, we believe that: 1) and 3G base station with the components in 5 months growth will slow (telecom operators in order to achieve the 3G Telephone Number in May, accelerating investment in the first half of this and previous years ); 2) 3G mobile phones, LCD TV, energy-efficient lighting, digital TV and other related electronic products such as the economy will continue upward.